FROM THE EDITORS
If 2016 was the “social media election” and 2024 was the “influencer election,” digital media expert and Seton Hall professor Jess Rauchberg has a stark prediction for 2028: the “prediction market election”. As a recent ABS-CBN report on betting firm sponsorships reveals, the warning signs are already flashing.
The scandal-plagued Los Angeles mayoral race foreshadowed this new era. The report details how influencers sponsored by prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket spread baseless claims of “cheating” and “stealing” to drive engagement, with some failing to disclose their sponsorships. This created what Atlantic Council’s Emerson Brooking calls a “perverse incentive structure” for influencers to profit from election chaos.
Now, amplify that dynamic with two increasingly disruptive forces: AI and synthetic media.
Two Forces, One Perfect Storm
First, AI-generated content, or “slop,” is flooding the zone. Politico recently reported that California is already “drowning in internet campaign ‘slop’” generated by AI, with campaign laws struggling to keep pace. We’re already seeing deepfake attack ads in Senate races where, as US News reports, a lack of federal guardrails leaves a “patchwork of largely untested state laws” in response. This tide of synthetic media makes it easier than ever to manufacture “evidence” of fraud or scandal.
Second, prediction markets (allowing users to bet on electoral outcomes) inject direct financial stakes into spreading this content. As the ABS-CBN piece shows, influencers sponsored by Kalshi and Polymarket posted baseless claims, and, as Nature reports, researchers have growing concerns about market manipulation and the potential to distort political signals. When financial incentives merge with cheap, AI-powered content creation, the result is a turbocharged engine for disinformation, where false narratives are amplified not just by bots but by real people with a direct financial interest in specific outcomes.
The Prediction Market Election: A Three-Act Play
The 2028 election is shaping up to be defined by three overlapping phases, all supercharged by AI:
Act I: The Flood (AI-Powered Disinformation). Generative AI will make synthetic media so cheap and easy that campaigns and bad actors will deploy waves of deepfakes, fabricated audio, and realistic text content to overwhelm voters, suppress turnout, or vilify opponents. As a Council on Foreign Relations analysis notes, if the current rate of AI advancement holds steady, the leading AI models could be 250 times more powerful by 2028—a capability leap with hard-to-fathom consequences for political manipulation.
Act II: The Wager (Prediction Market Betting). The financialization of election outcomes will become pervasive. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, despite facing mounting regulatory scrutiny, have already transacted billions, as highlighted in a report by the American Association for the Advancement of Science, which flagged how thin trading can shift probabilities and create misleading impressions of consensus. This dynamic directly influences media narratives and public perception, especially as Senators Jeff Merkley and Alex Padilla have recently introduced the FAIR Elections Act to combat AI-driven voter suppression and misinformation.
Act III: The Feedback Loop (Money Meets Manipulation). This is the most dangerous stage: a self-reinforcing feedback loop. AI-generated content will be weaponized to sway bets on prediction markets. Whales with deep pockets will bet heavily on a candidate, driving up their odds and creating a bandwagon effect. That price shift will generate news coverage, further influencing public opinion and more bets. And as we saw in LA, the need to influence these bets will incentivize influencers and even campaigns to create sensational, misleading AI content.
Charting a Way Forward
Policymakers are scrambling to catch up. Beyond the FAIR Elections Act, the “Protect Elections from Deceptive AI Act” was introduced as early as 2025, and the House is considering bans on lawmakers themselves betting on election outcomes.
But legislation moves slowly, and AI technology moves with exponential speed. The 2028 cycle will be a giant, uncontrolled experiment. For democracy to survive it, we need to move faster than the technology we’ve unleashed.
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